- A brand new ballot confirmed Kamala Harris had a shock 3-point lead over Trump in Iowa.
- Betting odds on Robinhood and Kalshi tightened following the information.
- Trump gained Iowa simply in each the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ betting odds jumped in a single day after a brand new ballot confirmed she held a shock lead over former President Donald Trump in Iowa — a state he gained simply in each 2016 and 2020.
A Des Moines Register/Mediacom ballot by Selzer & Co. printed on Saturday confirmed Harris with a three-point lead within the state.
The outcomes have been mirrored in tightening odds in betting markets on Sunday morning.
On Kalshi, the favored US-based prediction platform, Harris’ odds of successful the election have soared from 35% on October 29 to 51% on the time of writing.
Harris’ odds of successful the favored vote additionally elevated on Kalshi, rising from a low of about 61% on October 29 to 77% on the time of writing.
The digital buying and selling platform Robinhood additionally confirmed narrowing odds forward of Tuesday’s election.
Trump had a 66% probability of successful on October 29 versus Harris’ 39% probability, based mostly on bets positioned on Robinhood. However, on the time of writing, that had narrowed to a 51% probability for Trump and a 50% probability for Harris.
Betting markets have capitalized on this 12 months’s presidential election. Kalshi attracted over $100 million in bets on who will win in October alone.
In the meantime, Polymarket, one other prediction market — not out there to US residents — noticed betting quantity for the US election attain greater than $2 billion on its platform final month, The Block reported.
The Iowa ballot surveyed 808 possible voters between October 28 and October 31, with a 3.4-point margin of error.
The outcomes marked a pointy swing from September when the identical ballot confirmed Trump forward by 4 factors.
