Harris Did Not Vote to ‘Cut Medicare,’ Despite Trump's Claim

Jacob Gardenswartz

“Vice President Kamala Harris forged the tie-breaking vote to chop, as you understand, Medicare by $273 billion. She forged a vote to chop Medicare.”

— Former President Donald Trump at a July 24 marketing campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Throughout a July 24 marketing campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, former President Donald Trump claimed that Vice President Kamala Harris was chargeable for passing laws within the U.S. Senate to chop Medicare spending by practically $300 billion.

“As Vice President, Kamala Harris forged the tie-breaking vote to chop, as you understand, Medicare by $273 billion,” Trump informed rally attendees. “She forged a vote to chop Medicare.”

Trump gave no additional rationalization for which vote he was referring to or how he arrived at that determine. A marketing campaign spokesperson informed KFF Well being Information in an electronic mail that Trump was referring to a statistic from a Wall Avenue Journal op-ed by Tomas Philipson, a College of Chicago economist and a former Trump administration official.

Philipson’s op-ed argued that the Inflation Discount Act — a sweeping local weather and well being care measure handed in 2022 for which Harris forged the tie-breaking vote — would hurt Medicare sufferers by driving up prices. His article cited a Congressional Price range Workplace evaluation displaying that the measure’s well being care provisions would cut back the federal deficit by $237 billion over 10 years. “(M)ost of that discount comes from this system spending much less on pharmaceuticals,” Philipson wrote.

However the authorities’s spending much less on Medicare applications wouldn’t quantity to the type of “reduce” to Medicare advantages Trump implied, consultants informed KFF Well being Information. A number of provisions within the legislation pertaining to prescription drug pricing are broadly seen by well being coverage consultants as useful to each customers and the federal government. Particular person sufferers are anticipated to spend much less out-of-pocket on their pharmaceuticals, whereas the federal government will scale back Medicare spending with none affect to companies supplied.

We dug into the info surrounding Trump’s declare and the legislation’s impact on Medicare. It resurfaces a long-running debate over Medicare financial savings versus cuts and the query of whether or not lowered spending mechanically results in a discount in advantages for Medicare enrollees.

Following the Numbers

The Inflation Discount Act’s many provisions embrace some supposed to decrease prescription drug prices for older People and others receiving Medicare insurance coverage protection.

The legislation caps the price of insulin at $35 per 30 days for many Medicare beneficiaries, establishes out-of-pocket spending limits for Half D drug protection, and institutes penalties for drug firms that elevate costs quicker than the inflation fee. The legislation additionally authorizes Medicare officers, for the primary time, to barter drug pricing instantly with pharmaceutical producers.

“The concept behind drug value negotiation is that Medicare can use its shopping for energy to get a greater value than what’s at the moment being negotiated for these medication,” stated Juliette Cubanski, deputy director of this system on Medicare coverage at KFF, a well being data nonprofit that features KFF Well being Information.

In accordance with an evaluation by the Congressional Price range Workplace, the nonpartisan federal company that calculates the monetary affect of recent laws, the Inflation Discount Act’s well being care measures could have a combined impact on spending. Some steps, such because the cap on beneficiaries’ out-of-pocket prescription drug spending, will doubtless value the federal government extra. However others, together with the drug value negotiations, are projected to save lots of the federal government cash. All informed, the Inflation Discount Act’s well being care measures are anticipated to save lots of taxpayers $237 billion over 10 years.

On the numbers, Trump stated the legislation would “reduce Medicare” by $273 billion; he doubtless meant $237 billion.

Regardless of the federal government being anticipated to spend much less general, beneficiaries’ companies wouldn’t essentially be reduce, as Trump claimed. Actually, most Medicare recipients would doubtless see their prices lower, too, whereas preserving the identical degree of advantages.

“There are huge shifts in who’s paying for what,” stated Andrew Mulcahy, a senior well being economist who researches prescription drug markets on the Rand Corp., a nonpartisan assume tank. “However that doesn’t imply they’re getting any much less. If something, they’ll have higher entry to medication.”

Cubanski, echoing Mulcahy, stated: “Whenever you’re lowering Medicare spending, that’s not the identical factor as a reduce to Medicare or chopping Medicare advantages. Should you purchase eggs each week and now you’re getting them cheaper, you’re nonetheless getting the eggs, you’re simply getting them for a cheaper price.”

A 12 months in the past, the Facilities for Medicare & Medicaid Companies named the first 10 medication on which it would focus, although the precise financial savings from the drug pricing negotiations course of will likely be identified solely when the federal government and drug producers attain agreements. The brand new pricing for this primary batch of medicines is ready to take impact in 2026.

Whether or not the federal government can negotiate meaningfully decrease prices versus present costs is unclear, particularly since pharmacy profit managers, or PBMs — middlemen within the negotiations amongst drug firms, insurers and pharmacies — are tasked with doing that.

“I believe for most of the medication chosen within the first 12 months, my expectation is that the federal government gained’t be capable of do significantly better than the PBMs,” Mulcahy informed KFF Well being Information.

The Medicare drug pricing program may have adverse unwanted effects. Philipson, for instance, argued in his op-ed that the negotiations will “deter firms from growing new medicines” and threaten older People’ entry to medical doctors, as producers and hospitals would doubtless be reimbursed much less for his or her medication and companies.

Cubanski disregarded such issues.

“The drug trade definitely has a vested curiosity, you understand, in elevating alarm bells,” she stated. “I believe it’s simply nonetheless too early to speak about ‘the sky is falling’ with regard to pharmaceutical innovation. Time will inform, but it surely definitely is the case proper now that the legislation contains a whole lot of provisions that will likely be very useful for Medicare beneficiaries.”

On Aug. 15, CMS introduced the outcomes of its negotiation over the primary spherical of medication. The brand new costs signify reductions starting from 38% to 79% of the unique prices. White Home officers stated the negotiations will result in $6 billion in financial savings for Medicare the primary 12 months, whereas Medicare recipients are anticipated to save lots of a further $1.5 billion in out-of-pocket prices.

Our Ruling

Trump’s assertion is unsuitable each on the laborious numbers and his interpretation of what they imply.

The evaluation Trump cited, per his marketing campaign, stated the Inflation Discount Act’s well being care provisions would decrease the deficit by $237 billion — not $273 billion, as the previous president claimed. Furthermore, regardless of the actual quantity is, a number of consultants pushed again in opposition to the notion that the financial savings equated to a “reduce” to Medicare, as Trump claimed.

We fee Trump’s declare False.